You could be forgiven for thinking that the run up to Rachel Reeves’ second Budget got underway in early summer. It was in June that the government climbed down on the winter fuel payment, while July saw cuts to disability benefits abandoned. Together those U-turns created a fiscal hole of around £6 billion by 2029/30. Given that in March 2025 Reeves had left herself only £9.9 billion of fiscal headroom, £6 billion was enough to fire the starting gun for speculation about Budget tax rises.

It was not until early September that the Chancellor announced the Budget date, giving the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the media 12 weeks’ notice rather than the usual ten. Before long, the pitch-rolling began, with stories about the OBR reducing its growth assumptions and the need to find £20-£30 billion in tax and/or spending cuts.

By early November, the Chancellor was giving an 8.10 am ‘Scene setter’ speech in which she said, “If we are to build the future of Britain together, we will all have to contribute to that effort“. This was widely interpreted as meaning that income tax rates would rise, breaking a Labour manifesto commitment. Little more than a week later, the Financial Times revealed income tax rate rises were off the table, to be replaced by a smorgasbord of tax increases.

In the event, the Chancellor delivered just such a platter of taxing morsels. By far the most significant revenue-raising measure was the three-year extension of the freeze on personal income tax and national insurance thresholds – one year longer than the pre-Budget rumours had suggested.

The OBR, blushing from its pre-emptive publication of documents on the day, at least managed to summarise matters neatly: “...the Budget delivers a frontloaded increase in spending of £9 billion and backloaded increase in taxes of £26 billion”.