You may notice that this spring newsletter takes a slightly different shape from our usual format. Rather than a collection of shorter pieces, we’re sharing a longer-form investment update together with a broader mix of ideas and perspectives that we hope you’ll find thoughtful, engaging and useful.

It felt like a good fit for the way we like to communicate at Autus: clear, calm and focused on the bigger picture. Recent headlines have once again reminded us how noisy the world can feel, but the principles of good financial planning remain the same; perspective, patience and a long-term view.

We hope you enjoy this edition, and as always, if anything you read prompts questions about your own plans, we’d be very happy to talk it through with you.

Why this feels familiar

Cast your mind back: a global pandemic, war in Ukraine, an energy shock, rising interest rates, and now renewed tension in the Middle East. If the headlines feel uncomfortably familiar, you are not alone. Markets have wobbled, yes, but they have not fallen off a cliff - and there is some helpful perspective in that.

Why today is not 1973

The last time the Middle East triggered a truly seismic economic shock was the 1973 oil embargo, when oil prices surged and the era of stagflation took hold. Could today echo that? It is possible that higher energy prices keep inflation sticky for longer. But there are important differences this time.

The world is less dependent on Middle Eastern oil than it once was, governments hold strategic reserves, and central banks are better equipped than they were in the 1970s. None of that removes the risks, but it does help explain why markets have not treated every headline as the start of a full-blown crisis.

Keep perspective, not panic

Markets are forward-looking and, over the past few years, investors have already lived through an extraordinary stress test. Global diversification has continued to do its job. As ever, the greatest danger is often not the market movement itself, but the temptation to react to it emotionally.

What this means for you

For most long-term investors, probably less than the headlines suggest. A well-structured financial plan is designed with periods like this in mind.

• Diversification remains your best defence.
• Time in the market still beats timing the market.
• Short-term noise matters less than a disciplined long-term plan.
• History is full of unsettling moments, but patient investors have repeatedly been rewarded for staying the course.

Since 1900, global markets have navigated wars, pandemics, political upheaval and financial crises. While every period feels different in the moment, the long-term lesson has been remarkably consistent: panic rarely helps, while patience usually does.